ABSTRACT

The global trade landscape is entering a new era shaped by rising geopolitical tensions, tariff escalation, and the growing intersection of economics, security, and national values. After decades of liberalisation, long‑standing assumptions about free trade, market neutrality, and comparative advantage are increasingly being challenged.

This lecture examines how trade policy is evolving beyond tariffs to include export controls, investment screening, industrial policy, and economic deterrence. Focusing on the United States, China, Europe, and the Global South, it explores shifting trade patterns, the emergence of a more multipolar world, and the implications for global governance and business strategy.

While globalisation is not ending, it is becoming more complex, fragmented, and government‑driven. Understanding this new reality is essential for navigating future risks and opportunities in global trade.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Andrew Cainey

Andrew Cainey is a leading advisor, educator and analyst on China, geopolitics and global business. With over 30 years’ experience advising corporations and governments, he expertly bridges policy and practice. Formerly based in Asia, Andrew now leads initiatives on UK-China relations; analyses China’s development at home and abroad and the reactions of others; and helps firms navigate the shift to a multipolar world. He is the co-author of Xiconomics: What China’s Dual Circulation Strategy Means for Global Business (2023).

He is a founding director of the UK National Committee on China; a Senior Associate Fellow in the Royal United Services Institute’s International Security Programme; a non-executive director of Schroder Asian Total Investment Return plc; and a Senior Advisor to Boston Consulting Group. Andrew has previous experience at Chatham House, Fung Global Institute and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and held leadership positions in China and Asia with Booz & Company, Boston Consulting Group and Tony Blair’s government advisory practice. He has an MA (Hons) in Economics from the University of Cambridge and an MBA from the Harvard Business School.